Shannon calls this — not countertrend trading.
using Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).
Stage 2: Markup (Bullish Trend) /\ /\ / \ / \ / \_________/ \ / \ Stage 1: Accumulation Stage 3: Distribution (Sideways Base) (Top Formations) \ / \ / \ / \_______________________/ Stage 4: Markdown (Bearish Trend) Market Stage Description Trading Action Shannon calls this — not countertrend trading
Use the lowest timeframe to manage execution. Wait for a micro-breakout or a reversal candle at key hourly support. This minimizes your risk because your stop-loss can be placed tightly below the immediate intraday low. Key Technical Indicators Used
After a prolonged downtrend, the asset stops making lower lows and moves sideways. Institutional buyers quietly build positions. Moving averages begin to flatten out, and volatility decreases. Stage 2: Markup (The Trend) Wait for a micro-breakout or a reversal candle
Used to identify the current market cycle stage and intermediate trends.
A foundational concept in Shannon's book is that every stock or asset moves through four distinct cyclical stages. Correctly identifying the current stage prevents a trader from fighting the dominant trend. Price moves sideways after a long decline. Smart money builds positions quietly. Volatility is low, and moving averages flatten out. Stage 2: Markup (The Uptrend) Price breaks out above the accumulation resistance line. Higher highs and higher lows form consistently. This is the ideal stage for long positions. Stage 3: Distribution (The Top) Price momentum slows down and moves sideways again. Institutional investors sell their shares to retail buyers. Volatility increases, creating a choppy environment. Stage 4: Markdown (The Downtrend) Price breaks below distribution support levels. Lower highs and lower lows become the norm. This is the zone for short selling or staying in cash. The Concept of Multiple Timeframe Analysis Institutional buyers quietly build positions
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Volume confirms price action. A breakout on low volume is prone to failure, while a breakout on surging volume validates the move. Risk Management and Psychology
, argues that no single chart provides the full story. To succeed, you must align the "big picture" with your "entry trigger". The Core Philosophy: Alignment is Everything